MODEL VERDICT
MicroStrategy Incorporated Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $99.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $99.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $99.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $99.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $100.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $4973.47 | +4880.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $29.25 | -70.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4391.25 | +4297.4% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates STRC's fair value at $4391.25 vs the current price of $99.86, implying +4297.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4391.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2189.95 (P10) to $5181.85 (P90), with a median of $3666.69.
STRC's current P/E of -16.5x compares to the industry median of 28.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -157.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover STRC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $252.00 (range: $252.00 — $252.00), implying +152.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for STRC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.