Service Properties Trust (SVC)
Valuation Overview•Is Service Properties Trust Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 29/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
SVC struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-0.9% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 12.4%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $362.2M | -4.3% | -0.9% | +7.5% | -0.6% | |
| EBITDA | $105.6M | — | -3.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$151.2M | +26.6% | -15.2% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.91 | +26.9% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$14.3M | -15.5% | -21.5% | +25.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 23.2% | 32.3% | 32.3% | 36.8% |
| Operating Margin | 12.4% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 14.2% |
| Net Margin | -13.6% | -9.1% | -14.2% | -5.5% |
| FCF Margin | -0.7% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 16.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.36 | $0.04 | +111.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.01 | $0.17 | +1600.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.21 | $0.20 | -4.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.34 | $0.35 | +2.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.05 | $0.07 | +40.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.32 | $0.17 | +153.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.24 | $-0.28 | -16.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.49 | $0.45 | -8.2% |
Total return is -30.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -55.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -10.0% | -19.3% | — |
| 1Y | -30.2% | -55.2% | +1.6% |
| 3YCAGR | -31.8% | -52.1% | +12.3% |
| 5YCAGR | -23.8% | -37.3% | +12.9% |
| 10YCAGR | -8.4% | -22.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Service Properties Trust (SVC) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Service Properties Trust appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Service Properties Trust has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $8.80 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $3.50 (implying +107.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Service Properties Trust displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 29/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.6%.
Service Properties Trust does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Service Properties Trust's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -4.3% 1Y revenue growth and +26.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -0.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 15 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +107.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Service Properties Trust include: -62.0% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.65x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.