TAL Education Group (TAL)
Valuation Overview•Is TAL Education Group Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 64/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
TAL demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($1.6B) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-20.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (2.7%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $862.9M | +51.2% | -20.0% | -7.2% | +17.9% | |
| EBITDA | $94.8M | — | -9.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $124.3M | +2471.3% | — | — | +2.3% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.66 | +2472.9% | — | — | +0.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$58.1M | +54.5% | — | -15.6% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 54.4% | 54.9% | 53.8% | 52.8% |
| Operating Margin | 2.7% | -5.7% | -5.6% | 2.8% |
| Net Margin | 6.5% | -3.3% | -7.6% | 1.2% |
| FCF Margin | 16.6% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 10.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.14 | $0.45 | +211.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.08 | $0.25 | +224.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.16 | $0.24 | +49.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.07 | $0.07 | -4.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $-0.11 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.07 | $0.01 | -85.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.04 | $0.06 | +50.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.07 | $0.12 | +64.2% |
Total return is -11.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -36.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -20.0% | -29.3% | — |
| 1Y | -11.5% | -36.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +16.4% | -3.2% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -16.3% | -27.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +0.2% | -13.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about TAL Education Group (TAL) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, TAL Education Group appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
TAL Education Group has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $19.68 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $18.00 (implying +95.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
TAL Education Group displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 64/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.1 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -0.3%.
TAL Education Group returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 2.1% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +0.9% in the last 12 months.
TAL Education Group's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +51.2% 1Y revenue growth and +2472.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -20.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 28 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +95.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for TAL Education Group include: -29.1% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.90x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.