MODEL VERDICT
TAL Education Group (TAL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $8.31 | -25.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $33.05 | +195.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $20.72 | +85.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $55.23 | +394.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $75.47 | +575.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $84.07 | +652.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $62.48 | +459.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $20.52 | +83.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $54.52 | +388.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.79 | +166.7% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $9 | $12 | $14 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $9 | $12 | $15 | $17 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $10 | $12 | $15 | $18 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $10 | $13 | $16 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.40 | 3.11 | 0.37 | 7.00 | 2.76 |
| P/FFO | 197.30 | 6.99 | 5.56 | 936.88 | 413.58 |
| P/TBV | 0.69 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 2.46 | 0.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 1.84 | 0.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.06 | 1.43 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates TAL's fair value at $29.79 vs the current price of $11.17, implying +166.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.39 (P10) to $26.02 (P90), with a median of $22.64.
TAL's current P/E of 8.9x compares to the industry median of 16.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -46.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover TAL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +61.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TAL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.