MODEL VERDICT
Turtle Beach Corporation (TBCH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $24.00 | +99.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $42.44 | +252.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $20.96 | +73.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $0.98 | -91.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $23.50 | +95.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $23.99 | +99.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $26.85 | +122.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $18.99 | +57.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $0.94 | -92.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.82 | +64.5% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $11 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.08 | 22.19 | 9.09 | 22.95 | 7.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.96 | 17.95 | 5.78 | 24.16 | 9.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.45 | 14.32 | 5.62 | 14.41 | 5.05 |
| P/FCF | 147.02 | 7.77 | 7.54 | 425.74 | 241.38 |
| P/FFO | 12.91 | 13.08 | 8.02 | 17.64 | 4.81 |
| P/TBV | 5.02 | 3.25 | 1.56 | 14.27 | 5.23 |
| P/AFFO | 16.15 | 15.91 | 9.20 | 23.33 | 7.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.48 | 2.87 | 1.33 | 3.03 | 0.73 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.85 | 0.97 | 0.49 | 1.11 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates TBCH's fair value at $19.82 vs the current price of $12.05, implying +64.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.31 (P10) to $26.55 (P90), with a median of $20.32.
TBCH's current P/E of 15.4x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -42.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover TBCH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $20.00 — $20.00), implying +66.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TBCH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.