MODEL VERDICT
Token Cat Limited (TC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $11.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $20.29 | +80.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $42.88 | +281.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.29 | +196.4% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 11.43 | 8.83 | 6.47 | 22.54 | 6.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.41 | 6.43 | 4.49 | 8.54 | 1.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.53 | 3.79 | 0.80 | 7.90 | 2.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates TC's fair value at $33.29 vs the current price of $11.23, implying +196.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.89 (P10) to $56.19 (P90), with a median of $34.12.
TC's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -106.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover TC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (10), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.