MODEL VERDICT
Teradyne, Inc. (TER)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $345.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $418.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $380.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $364.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $367.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $318.39 | -7.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $261.50 | -24.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $236.78 | -31.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $173.19 | -49.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $186.74 | -45.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $181.48 | -47.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $140.25 | -59.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $130.75 | -62.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $235.92 | -31.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $182.44 | -47.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $206.99 | -40.1% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 83× | 91× | 99× (Current) | 107× | 115× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $295 | $323 | $351 | $380 | $408 |
| Conservative (5%) | $303 | $333 | $362 | $391 | $420 |
| Base Case (-4.1%) | $277 | $304 | $330 | $357 | $384 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $273 | $299 | $326 | $352 | $378 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.97 | 29.57 | 20.70 | 55.62 | 11.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.53 | 24.73 | 16.79 | 47.66 | 10.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.12 | 21.98 | 15.03 | 37.27 | 7.61 |
| P/FCF | 39.93 | 35.75 | 27.55 | 67.75 | 13.54 |
| P/FFO | 28.13 | 26.34 | 17.95 | 44.82 | 8.93 |
| P/TBV | 11.31 | 13.04 | 7.43 | 14.56 | 2.98 |
| P/AFFO | 37.87 | 30.23 | 22.36 | 66.81 | 15.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.75 | 8.27 | 6.05 | 11.71 | 2.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.96 | 7.03 | 4.70 | 9.57 | 1.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TER's fair value at $206.99 vs the current price of $345.42, implying -40.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $206.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $189.87 (P10) to $230.66 (P90), with a median of $210.02.
TER's current P/E of 99.3x compares to the industry median of 68.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +45.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover TER with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $351.09 (range: $220.00 — $440.00), implying +1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TER trades at the 7870th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TER's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6230.0% to approximately $130. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.