MODEL VERDICT
Teradyne, Inc. (TER) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $320.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $324.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $314.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $304.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $217.26 | Below threshold | +42.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $207.95 | -35.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $141.18 | -55.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $146.70 | -54.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $140.25 | -56.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $188.03 | -41.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $137.64 | -57.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $153.11 | -52.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $157.75 | -50.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $149.61 | -53.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $145.26 | -54.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $155.63 | -51.4% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 78× | 85× | 92× (Current) | 99× | 106× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $277 | $302 | $327 | $351 | $376 |
| Conservative (5%) | $285 | $311 | $336 | $362 | $387 |
| Base Case (-4.1%) | $260 | $284 | $307 | $330 | $354 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $257 | $280 | $303 | $326 | $349 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.97 | 29.57 | 20.70 | 55.62 | 11.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.41 | 24.73 | 16.79 | 46.79 | 9.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.12 | 21.98 | 15.03 | 37.27 | 7.61 |
| P/FCF | 39.93 | 35.75 | 27.55 | 67.75 | 13.54 |
| P/FFO | 28.13 | 26.34 | 17.95 | 44.82 | 8.93 |
| P/TBV | 11.31 | 13.04 | 7.43 | 14.56 | 2.98 |
| P/AFFO | 37.87 | 30.23 | 22.36 | 66.81 | 15.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.75 | 8.27 | 6.05 | 11.71 | 2.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.96 | 7.03 | 4.70 | 9.57 | 1.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TER's fair value at $155.63 vs the current price of $320.03, implying -51.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $155.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $129.25 (P10) to $177.05 (P90), with a median of $152.83.
TER's current P/E of 92.0x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +118.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover TER with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $277.58 (range: $175.00 — $335.00), implying -13.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TER trades at the 8300th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TER's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4710.0% to approximately $169. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.