Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$320.03
→
Intrinsic$51.54
-84%
$35.16$51.54$82.68
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $35 → Bull $83. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $83).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
| 10% | $44 | $47 | $52 | $56 |
| 12% | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| 14% | $28 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($83) with 10% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($35) implies 89% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 84% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($83) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$486.44M
Year 2$525.35M
Year 3$567.38M
Year 4$612.77M
Year 5$661.79M
Terminal$9.74B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$450.41MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.