Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$239.39
→
Intrinsic$871.06
+264%
$556.91$871.06$1,467.09
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests THC could have 264% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $239, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $557 → Bull $1467. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $1098 | $1195 | $1299 | $1409 |
| 10% | $734 | $800 | $871 | $946 |
| 12% | $533 | $582 | $635 | $691 |
| 14% | $405 | $444 | $485 | $529 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1467) offers 513% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($557) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$3.16B
Year 2$3.95B
Year 3$4.94B
Year 4$6.18B
Year 5$7.72B
Terminal$113.61B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.53BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.