MODEL VERDICT
UP Fintech Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (TIGR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $10.08 | +48.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $14.59 | +115.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $12.67 | +87.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $9.21 | +36.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $14.38 | +112.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.41 | +83.4% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.81 | 36.56 | 17.94 | 72.18 | 25.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.47 | 19.92 | 6.08 | 36.81 | 14.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.08 | 14.02 | 5.93 | 34.22 | 13.24 |
| P/FCF | 1.89 | 2.06 | 1.32 | 2.14 | 0.34 |
| P/FFO | 42.39 | 47.70 | 15.75 | 76.43 | 25.97 |
| P/TBV | 2.28 | 1.72 | 1.20 | 5.08 | 1.44 |
| P/AFFO | 86.08 | 57.74 | 16.11 | 269.18 | 105.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.20 | 1.68 | 1.17 | 4.86 | 1.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.57 | 2.84 | 2.32 | 8.53 | 2.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates TIGR's fair value at $12.41 vs the current price of $6.77, implying +83.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.40 (P10) to $14.26 (P90), with a median of $11.77.
TIGR's current P/E of 18.8x compares to the industry median of 28.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -32.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.8x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover TIGR with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $4.73 (range: $4.73 — $4.73), implying -30.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.5% is 9.9 percentage points above the 4-year average (5.7%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$5. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TIGR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (5.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2100.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.