MODEL VERDICT
The Timken Company (TKR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $109.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $107.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $107.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $103.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $106.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $143.12 | +31.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $206.99 | +89.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $137.49 | +26.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $183.38 | +68.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $199.90 | +83.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $182.42 | +67.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $33.45 | -69.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $255.12 | +134.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $266.54 | +144.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $175.92 | +61.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $182.12 | +67.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $156.91 | +44.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $96 | $105 | $113 | $122 | $130 |
| Conservative (5%) | $99 | $108 | $117 | $125 | $134 |
| Base Case (2.0%) | $96 | $105 | $113 | $122 | $130 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $97 | $106 | $114 | $122 | $131 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.65 | 14.47 | 11.96 | 20.80 | 3.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.17 | 11.19 | 10.33 | 14.66 | 1.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.47 | 9.15 | 8.23 | 11.77 | 1.13 |
| P/FCF | 15.93 | 16.16 | 10.57 | 22.33 | 3.80 |
| P/FFO | 10.07 | 9.70 | 8.30 | 13.18 | 1.69 |
| P/TBV | 12.57 | 10.73 | 6.89 | 21.37 | 5.73 |
| P/AFFO | 14.17 | 13.76 | 11.35 | 18.08 | 2.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 2.22 | 1.69 | 2.66 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.27 | 1.21 | 1.10 | 1.68 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TKR's fair value at $156.91 vs the current price of $109.00, implying +44.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $156.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $136.60 (P10) to $161.96 (P90), with a median of $148.99.
TKR's current P/E of 26.5x compares to the industry median of 33.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -20.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
24 analysts cover TKR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $115.33 (range: $108.00 — $130.00), implying +5.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TKR trades at the 1250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TKR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2860.0% to approximately $140. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.