MODEL VERDICT
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $12.10 | +447.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 78 industry peers | $13.18 | +496.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.51 | +602.0% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 10.89 | 8.77 | 5.02 | 21.00 | 7.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.39 | 8.24 | 4.09 | 21.00 | 7.64 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.50 | 6.55 | 2.21 | 10.70 | 3.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates TMCI's fair value at $15.51 vs the current price of $2.21, implying +602.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.06 (P10) to $21.10 (P90), with a median of $14.42.
TMCI's current P/E of -2.5x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -106.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover TMCI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.00 (range: $3.00 — $3.00), implying +35.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TMCI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.