TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
Valuation Overview•Is TransMedics Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 76/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
TMDX demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($19M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (86.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 14.9%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $173.9M | +37.1% | +86.4% | +88.2% | — | |
| EBITDA | $13.3M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $7.3M | +436.6% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.20 | +382.2% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$12.1M | +265.0% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 59.1% | 61.0% | 64.6% | 53.1% |
| Operating Margin | 14.9% | 4.8% | -29.9% | -116.9% |
| Net Margin | 27.0% | 9.7% | -31.2% | -125.1% |
| FCF Margin | 23.8% | -25.3% | -48.9% | -142.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.62 | $0.30 | -51.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.41 | $0.57 | +39.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.37 | $0.66 | +78.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.48 | $0.92 | +91.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.29 | $0.70 | +141.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.22 | $0.19 | -13.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.29 | $0.12 | -58.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.21 | $0.35 | +66.7% |
Total return is -36.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -61.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -35.8% | -45.1% | — |
| 1Y | -36.5% | -61.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -0.7% | -22.6% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +21.5% | +7.1% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +13.4% | -1.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) valuation, health, and returns.
TransMedics Group, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $68.22)
TransMedics Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $68.22 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $92.47 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $121.20 (implying +53.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
TransMedics Group, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 76/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.4 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 18.8%.
TransMedics Group, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
TransMedics Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +37.1% 1Y revenue growth and +382.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +86.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 12 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +53.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for TransMedics Group, Inc. include: -58.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.29x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.