MODEL VERDICT
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $469.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $469.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $526.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $531.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $496.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $522.98 | +11.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $446.41 | -4.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $508.71 | +8.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $431.55 | -8.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $449.68 | -4.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $388.10 | -17.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $63.77 | -86.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $477.89 | +1.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $567.41 | +20.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $508.72 | +8.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $428.17 | -8.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $471.87 | +0.6% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $398 | $434 | $470 | $507 | $543 |
| Conservative (5%) | $410 | $447 | $484 | $522 | $559 |
| Base Case (2.1%) | $398 | $435 | $471 | $507 | $543 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $402 | $438 | $475 | $511 | $548 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.65 | 32.66 | 29.15 | 35.43 | 2.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.81 | 28.72 | 25.45 | 31.65 | 2.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.58 | 21.59 | 19.38 | 22.99 | 1.33 |
| P/FCF | 31.52 | 31.40 | 27.27 | 37.73 | 3.82 |
| P/FFO | 22.27 | 21.91 | 21.00 | 25.68 | 1.64 |
| P/AFFO | 27.23 | 26.00 | 24.77 | 33.99 | 3.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.81 | 4.41 | 4.01 | 6.46 | 0.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.26 | 4.90 | 4.65 | 6.76 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TMO's fair value at $471.87 vs the current price of $469.21, implying +0.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $471.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $469.14 (P10) to $524.61 (P90), with a median of $496.36.
TMO's current P/E of 26.4x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -7.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
42 analysts cover TMO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $654.67 (range: $600.00 — $750.00), implying +39.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (38), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TMO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3160.0% to approximately $617. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.