MODEL VERDICT
Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $19.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $19.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $19.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $19.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $19.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $3.28 | -83.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $0.12 | -99.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $3.61 | -81.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $5.34 | -72.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $0.12 | -99.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.75 | -85.9% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5871× | 6430× | 6989× (Current) | 7548× | 8107× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Conservative (7%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1016.96 | 119.37 | 31.93 | 5632.14 | 2261.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 175.74 | 122.79 | 27.94 | 429.44 | 174.96 |
| P/FFO | 53.61 | 56.30 | 24.57 | 90.20 | 23.07 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.24 | 0.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.85 | 1.10 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.98 | 9.06 | 6.34 | 10.27 | 1.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRC's fair value at $2.75 vs the current price of $19.57, implying -85.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.12 (P10) to $8.10 (P90), with a median of $5.13.
TRC's current P/E of 6989.3x compares to the industry median of 42.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +16485.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1017.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover TRC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TRC trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1017.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TRC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.