MODEL VERDICT
TROOPS, Inc. (TROO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $4.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $3.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $2.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $2.79 | Below threshold | -15.8% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $2.68 | Below threshold | -14.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $0.22 | -95.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $0.25 | -94.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $0.36 | -91.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $0.39 | -91.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $0.21 | -95.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.65 | -85.0% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 690.94 | 957.54 | 139.00 | 976.28 | 478.08 |
| P/FCF | 44.50 | 36.53 | 6.55 | 98.40 | 38.87 |
| P/TBV | 3.26 | 3.07 | 0.24 | 8.03 | 2.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.12 | 2.46 | 0.18 | 7.98 | 2.71 |
| P/S Ratio | 51.42 | 33.14 | 13.62 | 135.40 | 45.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates TROO's fair value at $0.65 vs the current price of $4.37, implying -85.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.35 (P10) to $1.04 (P90), with a median of $0.66.
TROO's current P/E of -33.6x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -217.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for TROO.
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TROO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.