MODEL VERDICT
Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $60.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $60.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $59.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $57.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $47.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $36.21 | -40.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $30.79 | -49.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.04 | +6.0% | 100% | 58 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.55 | 5.03 | 1.99 | 16.54 | 4.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.91 | 4.01 | 1.63 | 16.47 | 4.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.40 | 8.61 | 5.04 | 61.46 | 20.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates TWST's fair value at $64.04 vs the current price of $60.40, implying +6.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.02 (P10) to $87.52 (P90), with a median of $51.24.
TWST's current P/E of -46.5x compares to the industry median of 24.7x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -288.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover TWST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.50 (range: $41.00 — $55.00), implying -18.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TWST.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.