MODEL VERDICT
Ternium S.A. (TX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $43.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $43.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $42.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $42.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $41.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $64.85 | +49.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $96.35 | +122.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $60.29 | +38.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $64.81 | +49.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $107.14 | +146.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $105.43 | +143.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $59.84 | +37.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.41 | +32.3% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $40 | $45 | $49 | $54 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $42 | $46 | $51 | $55 |
| Base Case (-11.1%) | $31 | $35 | $39 | $43 | $47 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $30 | $34 | $37 | $41 | $45 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.39 | 7.45 | 2.24 | 17.36 | 5.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.70 | 5.96 | 1.41 | 12.15 | 3.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.24 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 5.74 | 1.56 |
| P/FCF | 27.81 | 6.00 | 2.76 | 140.13 | 55.06 |
| P/FFO | 4.68 | 4.05 | 1.93 | 8.28 | 2.30 |
| P/TBV | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.37 | 0.76 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 9.30 | 5.02 | 2.19 | 24.95 | 10.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 0.65 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates TX's fair value at $57.41 vs the current price of $43.39, implying +32.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.05 (P10) to $65.80 (P90), with a median of $59.32.
TX's current P/E of 19.7x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -28.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.4x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
16 analysts cover TX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.33 (range: $36.00 — $49.00), implying -4.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TX trades at the 1820th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10900.0% to approximately $91. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.