Ternium S.A. (TX)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Popular:
TX Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $676M | $-54M | $425M | $469M | $483M | $363M | $345M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.40 | $-0.27 | $2.20 | $2.39 | $2.46 | $1.85 | $1.76 |
| YoY Growth | — | -107.9% | — | +10.2% | +3.1% | -24.9% | -4.9% |
| Net Margin | 3.8% | -0.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
USD · TX · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.6B | $15.2B | $14.8B | $13.8B | $13.2B |
| Net Income | $425M | $469M | $483M | $363M | $345M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.20 | $2.39 | $2.46 | $1.85 | $1.76 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-187M | $174M | $168M | $155M | $147M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TX stock.
Ternium S.A.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $2.39. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 43/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Ternium S.A.: Bear case $24, Base case $54, and Bull case $361. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Ternium S.A.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -2.2%, reaching approximately $15.2B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 43/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Ternium S.A.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 5.2% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($24) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 41.7% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 17% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.