MODEL VERDICT
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $212.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $219.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $226.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $220.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $190.31 | Below threshold | +14.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $209.96 | -1.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $250.88 | +18.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $245.86 | +15.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $139.96 | -34.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $293.20 | +38.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $125.84 | -40.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $135.01 | -36.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $150.99 | -28.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $257.42 | +21.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $144.96 | -31.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $241.18 | +13.7% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $183 | $200 | $217 | $233 | $250 |
| Conservative (5%) | $189 | $206 | $223 | $240 | $258 |
| Base Case (-1.8%) | $177 | $193 | $209 | $225 | $241 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $176 | $191 | $207 | $223 | $239 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.33 | 24.48 | 17.56 | 36.06 | 6.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.97 | 21.28 | 15.52 | 30.65 | 5.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.00 | 19.19 | 14.30 | 25.94 | 3.72 |
| P/FCF | 56.35 | 28.03 | 21.05 | 115.75 | 42.39 |
| P/FFO | 21.30 | 20.22 | 15.73 | 27.01 | 3.49 |
| P/TBV | 19.78 | 15.20 | 12.68 | 33.65 | 8.47 |
| P/AFFO | 47.56 | 28.18 | 22.07 | 110.53 | 32.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.90 | 10.50 | 9.24 | 16.67 | 2.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.32 | 8.96 | 7.64 | 11.02 | 1.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TXN's fair value at $241.18 vs the current price of $212.11, implying +13.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $241.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $161.29 (P10) to $221.76 (P90), with a median of $191.05.
TXN's current P/E of 38.9x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -13.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
65 analysts cover TXN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $211.79 (range: $160.00 — $260.00), implying -0.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (28), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TXN trades at the 4470th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TXN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (43.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 340.0% to approximately $219. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.