MODEL VERDICT
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $281.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $277.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $229.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $216.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $214.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $265.92 | -5.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $265.82 | -5.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $377.16 | +34.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $107.71 | -61.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $533.18 | +89.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $94.02 | -66.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $114.79 | -59.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $115.23 | -59.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $385.43 | +37.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $101.30 | -64.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $280.44 | -0.2% | 100% | 80 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 44× | 48× | 52× (Current) | 56× | 60× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $245 | $267 | $289 | $311 | $334 |
| Conservative (5%) | $252 | $275 | $298 | $320 | $343 |
| Base Case (-1.8%) | $235 | $257 | $278 | $300 | $321 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $234 | $255 | $277 | $298 | $319 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.33 | 24.48 | 17.56 | 36.06 | 6.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.06 | 21.29 | 15.56 | 30.89 | 5.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.08 | 19.31 | 14.34 | 26.14 | 3.77 |
| P/FCF | 56.35 | 28.03 | 21.05 | 115.75 | 42.39 |
| P/FFO | 21.30 | 20.22 | 15.73 | 27.01 | 3.49 |
| P/TBV | 19.78 | 15.20 | 12.68 | 33.65 | 8.47 |
| P/AFFO | 47.56 | 28.18 | 22.07 | 110.53 | 32.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.90 | 10.50 | 9.24 | 16.67 | 2.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.32 | 8.96 | 7.64 | 11.02 | 1.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TXN's fair value at $280.44 vs the current price of $281.02, implying -0.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $280.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $183.56 (P10) to $261.85 (P90), with a median of $221.85.
TXN's current P/E of 51.6x compares to the industry median of 69.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -25.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
65 analysts cover TXN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $253.71 (range: $175.00 — $325.00), implying -9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (28), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TXN trades at the 4680th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TXN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (43.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2420.0% to approximately $213. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.