Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$212.11
→
Intrinsic$43.99
-79%
$25.68$43.99$80.45
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $26 → Bull $80. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $80).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $56 | $63 | $69 | $77 |
| 10% | $35 | $39 | $44 | $49 |
| 12% | $24 | $27 | $31 | $34 |
| 14% | $17 | $20 | $22 | $25 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($80) with 10% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($26) implies 88% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 79% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($80) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.81B
Year 2$3.04B
Year 3$3.28B
Year 4$3.54B
Year 5$3.82B
Terminal$60.61B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.60BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.