MODEL VERDICT
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $354.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $317.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $303.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $360.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $448.37 | Below threshold | -20.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $254.68 | -28.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $221.71 | -37.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $157.09 | -55.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $271.21 | -23.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $174.45 | -50.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $253.75 | -28.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $101.94 | -71.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $186.69 | -47.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $177.32 | -50.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $166.19 | -53.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $271.54 | -23.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $315.44 | -11.1% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 49× | 54× | 59× (Current) | 64× | 69× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $309 | $341 | $372 | $404 | $435 |
| Conservative (7%) | $317 | $349 | $382 | $414 | $446 |
| Base Case (10.6%) | $328 | $361 | $395 | $428 | $462 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $339 | $374 | $408 | $443 | $478 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 93.28 | 93.07 | 50.49 | 140.82 | 27.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 83.09 | 79.52 | 46.97 | 130.59 | 26.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 51.67 | 50.73 | 34.33 | 68.92 | 13.48 |
| P/FCF | 50.69 | 54.61 | 33.47 | 71.88 | 12.86 |
| P/FFO | 54.77 | 53.91 | 35.80 | 73.95 | 13.41 |
| P/TBV | 25.92 | 25.34 | 22.20 | 30.23 | 4.05 |
| P/AFFO | 62.70 | 63.52 | 41.23 | 90.29 | 16.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.24 | 7.40 | 5.21 | 9.78 | 1.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.12 | 11.08 | 7.39 | 16.23 | 3.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TYL's fair value at $315.44 vs the current price of $354.69, implying -11.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $315.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $288.40 (P10) to $381.12 (P90), with a median of $334.23.
TYL's current P/E of 58.6x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +125.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 93.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
35 analysts cover TYL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $473.91 (range: $325.00 — $675.00), implying +33.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TYL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4530.0% to approximately $515. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.