MODEL VERDICT
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $335.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $342.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $342.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $337.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $317.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $178.06 | -46.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $161.78 | -51.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $125.53 | -62.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $297.83 | -11.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $129.92 | -61.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $316.60 | -5.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $64.06 | -80.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $145.46 | -56.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $120.36 | -64.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $116.36 | -65.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $299.51 | -10.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $319.71 | -4.7% | 100% | 85 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $291 | $321 | $351 | $380 | $410 |
| Conservative (6%) | $297 | $328 | $358 | $389 | $419 |
| Base Case (9.0%) | $306 | $337 | $369 | $400 | $432 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $315 | $347 | $379 | $412 | $444 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 95.08 | 93.07 | 63.05 | 140.82 | 24.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 84.19 | 79.52 | 54.66 | 130.59 | 24.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.29 | 50.73 | 37.45 | 68.92 | 12.62 |
| P/FCF | 50.36 | 54.61 | 31.20 | 71.88 | 13.38 |
| P/FFO | 55.78 | 53.91 | 40.65 | 73.95 | 11.92 |
| P/TBV | 42.59 | 30.23 | 22.20 | 75.34 | 28.64 |
| P/AFFO | 63.16 | 63.52 | 44.45 | 90.29 | 15.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.20 | 7.40 | 5.21 | 9.78 | 1.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.20 | 11.08 | 7.39 | 16.23 | 3.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TYL's fair value at $319.71 vs the current price of $335.50, implying -4.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $319.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $295.65 (P10) to $367.27 (P90), with a median of $330.88.
TYL's current P/E of 46.6x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +167.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 95.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover TYL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $453.45 (range: $360.00 — $550.00), implying +35.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TYL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8520.0% to approximately $621. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.