Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$354.69
→
Intrinsic$409.02
+15%
$279.49$409.02$654.95
Market implies 16% growth for 5 years
TYL shows 15% potential upside using 20% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $355, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (16%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $279 → Bull $655. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $498 | $539 | $583 | $630 |
| 10% | $351 | $379 | $409 | $441 |
| 12% | $269 | $290 | $313 | $337 |
| 14% | $217 | $234 | $252 | $270 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($655) offers 85% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 13% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (16%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($279) implies 21% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$724.92M
Year 2$869.90M
Year 3$1.04B
Year 4$1.25B
Year 5$1.50B
Terminal$22.12B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$604.10MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.