MODEL VERDICT
United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $43.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $43.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $44.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $43.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $43.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $41.55 | -4.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $49.96 | +14.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $39.67 | -9.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 13 industry peers | $49.76 | +13.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $41.47 | -5.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $38.51 | -11.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.88 | +2.8% | 100% | 100 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $30 | $37 | $44 | $50 | $57 |
| Conservative (5%) | $31 | $38 | $45 | $52 | $58 |
| Base Case (6.4%) | $31 | $38 | $45 | $52 | $59 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $32 | $39 | $46 | $53 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.59 | 13.65 | 11.74 | 15.16 | 1.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.83 | 7.75 | 4.27 | 16.57 | 4.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.83 | 8.05 | 4.19 | 17.68 | 4.64 |
| P/FCF | 15.74 | 11.74 | 7.35 | 32.04 | 9.98 |
| P/FFO | 13.84 | 13.42 | 12.51 | 16.43 | 1.40 |
| P/TBV | 1.77 | 1.67 | 1.57 | 2.10 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 14.48 | 13.93 | 13.04 | 17.23 | 1.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.05 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 1.21 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.77 | 3.42 | 2.97 | 4.78 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates UBSI's fair value at $44.88 vs the current price of $43.68, implying +2.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.23 (P10) to $45.18 (P90), with a median of $43.17.
UBSI's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +5.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover UBSI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $46.67 (range: $44.00 — $49.00), implying +6.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UBSI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1040.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.