MODEL VERDICT
Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $167.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $174.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $182.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $180.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $180.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $504.19 | +201.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $365.02 | +118.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $371.03 | +122.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $145.44 | -12.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $385.61 | +130.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $192.41 | +15.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $315.63 | +89.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $451.80 | +170.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $349.75 | +109.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $375.23 | +124.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $135.44 | -18.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $404.51 | +142.2% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $98 | $123 | $172 | $221 | $270 |
| Conservative (10%) | $102 | $128 | $179 | $230 | $281 |
| Base Case (16.0%) | $107 | $134 | $188 | $241 | $295 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $112 | $140 | $197 | $253 | $309 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.80 | 12.51 | 9.44 | 15.71 | 2.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.09 | 11.11 | 9.14 | 15.68 | 2.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.55 | 8.07 | 7.43 | 9.98 | 1.08 |
| P/FCF | 71.18 | 16.55 | 7.24 | 387.06 | 139.68 |
| P/FFO | 7.90 | 8.09 | 6.67 | 9.79 | 1.06 |
| P/TBV | 5.05 | 4.71 | 4.20 | 7.46 | 1.10 |
| P/AFFO | 17.21 | 16.34 | 12.87 | 19.91 | 2.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.86 | 1.80 | 1.72 | 2.29 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UHS's fair value at $404.51 vs the current price of $167.00, implying +142.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $404.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $304.56 (P10) to $562.09 (P90), with a median of $389.59.
UHS's current P/E of 7.2x compares to the industry median of 16.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -55.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover UHS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $231.50 (range: $190.00 — $310.00), implying +38.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (23), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 8.6% is 1.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.0%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$242. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UHS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4460.0% to approximately $242. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.