MODEL VERDICT
Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS)
Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $230.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $234.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $212.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $207.03 | Pending | +2.9% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $222.60 | Pending | -4.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 27 analyst estimates | $412.02 | +78.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 28 industry peers | $512.40 | +122.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 22 industry peers | $378.13 | +64.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 26 industry peers | $268.80 | +16.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $382.99 | +66.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $313.62 | +36.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 13 industry peers | $279.68 | +21.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $330.02 | +43.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $280.36 | +21.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 22 industry peers | $402.03 | +74.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $284.25 | +23.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $420.06 | +82.3% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $177 | $212 | $248 | $283 | $319 |
| Conservative (8%) | $182 | $219 | $255 | $292 | $328 |
| Base Case (13.0%) | $190 | $228 | $266 | $304 | $342 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $198 | $237 | $277 | $316 | $356 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.46 | 14.01 | 10.67 | 15.71 | 2.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.59 | 12.54 | 10.12 | 15.68 | 2.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.79 | 9.10 | 7.51 | 9.98 | 0.97 |
| P/FCF | 71.76 | 20.37 | 7.24 | 387.06 | 139.42 |
| P/FFO | 8.21 | 8.27 | 7.05 | 9.79 | 0.96 |
| P/TBV | 5.41 | 4.85 | 4.42 | 7.46 | 1.18 |
| P/AFFO | 19.08 | 19.69 | 15.56 | 25.95 | 3.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.88 | 1.80 | 1.72 | 2.29 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.90 | 0.86 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UHS's fair value at $420.06 vs the current price of $230.49, implying +82.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $420.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $309.10 (P10) to $628.02 (P90), with a median of $411.55.
UHS's current P/E of 13.7x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (22 peers in the group). This represents a -39.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover UHS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $245.67 (range: $219.00 — $274.00), implying +6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (23), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 8.1% is 1.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (6.8%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$190. (2) Multiple compression: UHS trades at the 2270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.5×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UHS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1750.0% to approximately $190. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.