Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$206.10
→
Intrinsic$252.49
+23%
$147.42$252.49$452.07
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
UHS shows 23% potential upside using 16% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $206, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (16%).
Range: Bear $147 → Bull $452. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 12% | 14% | 16% | 18% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $321 | $356 | $392 | $431 |
| 10% | $204 | $227 | $252 | $279 |
| 12% | $139 | $156 | $175 | $195 |
| 14% | $98 | $111 | $126 | $142 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($452) offers 119% upside at 19% growth, 9% discount
- 18% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (16%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($147) implies 28% downside at 13% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$985.27M
Year 2$1.14B
Year 3$1.33B
Year 4$1.54B
Year 5$1.79B
Terminal$26.27B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate16.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$849.25MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.