MODEL VERDICT
Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $43.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $43.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $43.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $42.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.49 | Pending | +7.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $89.86 | +106.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $53.99 | +23.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $17.04 | -60.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $89.44 | +105.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $57.81 | +32.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.43 | +52.3% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $40 | $44 | $48 | $52 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $53 |
| Base Case (-2.1%) | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 | $50 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $46 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.99 | 31.20 | 7.51 | 85.04 | 23.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.37 | 28.59 | 9.64 | 64.09 | 19.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.85 | 18.61 | 13.81 | 36.62 | 7.53 |
| P/FCF | 20.47 | 19.84 | 10.98 | 42.98 | 11.11 |
| P/FFO | 16.01 | 13.82 | 6.00 | 36.00 | 9.71 |
| P/TBV | 4.55 | 3.64 | 2.87 | 9.65 | 2.50 |
| P/AFFO | 21.82 | 20.02 | 6.63 | 40.62 | 14.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.32 | 3.48 | 2.87 | 8.88 | 2.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.12 | 8.50 | 5.20 | 20.92 | 5.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates UHT's fair value at $66.43 vs the current price of $43.62, implying +52.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.62 (P10) to $82.89 (P90), with a median of $63.72.
UHT's current P/E of 34.3x compares to the industry median of 70.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -51.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for UHT.
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UHT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.6σ, meaning margins are 2.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10220.0% to approximately $88. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.