MODEL VERDICT
Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $40.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $40.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $42.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $42.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $42.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $65.97 | +62.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $72.17 | +77.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $56.64 | +39.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $16.29 | -59.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $177.11 | +336.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $75.17 | +85.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $70.77 | +74.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $71.99 | +77.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.43 | +66.2% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $34 | $38 | $41 | $45 | $49 |
| Conservative (5%) | $35 | $39 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
| Base Case (-2.1%) | $32 | $36 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $32 | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.99 | 31.20 | 7.51 | 85.04 | 23.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.15 | 25.64 | 9.64 | 64.09 | 17.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.27 | 17.56 | 13.81 | 36.62 | 7.88 |
| P/FCF | 20.47 | 19.84 | 10.98 | 42.98 | 11.11 |
| P/FFO | 16.01 | 13.82 | 6.00 | 36.00 | 9.71 |
| P/TBV | 4.55 | 3.64 | 2.87 | 9.65 | 2.50 |
| P/AFFO | 21.82 | 20.02 | 6.63 | 40.62 | 14.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.32 | 3.48 | 2.87 | 8.88 | 2.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.46 | 7.27 | 5.20 | 20.92 | 5.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates UHT's fair value at $67.43 vs the current price of $40.56, implying +66.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.95 (P10) to $81.41 (P90), with a median of $67.79.
UHT's current P/E of 31.9x compares to the industry median of 139.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -77.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover UHT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UHT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.4σ, meaning margins are 2.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11090.0% to approximately $86. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.