Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$73.75
→
Intrinsic$51.01
-31%
$31.08$51.01$90.70
Market implies 16% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $74, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (16%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $31 → Bull $91. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $64 | $71 | $79 | $87 |
| 10% | $42 | $46 | $51 | $56 |
| 12% | $29 | $33 | $36 | $40 |
| 14% | $22 | $25 | $27 | $30 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($91) offers 23% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($31) implies 58% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 16% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 31% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$8.40B
Year 2$9.08B
Year 3$9.80B
Year 4$10.59B
Year 5$11.43B
Terminal$181.17B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$7.78BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.