Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH)
Valuation Overview•Is Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 18/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
ULH struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-8.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-2.1%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $367.6M | -15.6% | -8.2% | +2.3% | +3.3% | |
| EBITDA | $40.4M | — | -13.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$3.5M | -176.9% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.13 | -176.9% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.8M | +70.5% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 10.1% | 14.3% | 14.6% | 14.7% |
| Operating Margin | -2.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% |
| Net Margin | -7.1% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| FCF Margin | -3.2% | -4.0% | -0.9% | 0.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.09 | $-0.13 | -244.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.05 | $0.14 | +380.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.18 | $0.24 | +33.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.34 | $0.32 | -5.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.48 | $0.23 | -52.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.93 | $0.77 | -17.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.18 | $1.15 | -2.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.14 | $1.17 | +2.6% |
Total return is -38.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -59.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -0.4% | -7.7% | — |
| 1Y | -38.5% | -59.3% | +1.7% |
| 3YCAGR | -16.7% | -36.3% | +4.4% |
| 5YCAGR | -5.7% | -17.6% | +9.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +4.0% | -10.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $21.70 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $17.00 (implying +11.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 18/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.0 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.1%.
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. pays a 2.7% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -15.6% 1Y revenue growth and -176.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -8.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +11.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. include: -59.5% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.14x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.14x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.