MODEL VERDICT
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $293.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $290.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $293.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $273.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $343.98 | Below threshold | -19.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $346.40 | +18.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $275.31 | -6.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $293.27 | +0.0% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $882.50 | +200.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $339.99 | +15.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $525.81 | +79.3% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $858.56 | +192.8% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $290.88 | -0.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $451.05 | +53.8% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $238 | $270 | $302 | $334 | $366 |
| Conservative (5%) | $245 | $278 | $311 | $344 | $376 |
| Base Case (-0.6%) | $232 | $263 | $294 | $325 | $356 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $232 | $263 | $294 | $325 | $355 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.44 | 22.07 | 20.52 | 32.62 | 4.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.46 | 18.75 | 15.93 | 21.75 | 2.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.43 | 14.75 | 14.00 | 18.64 | 1.71 |
| P/FCF | 18.72 | 19.23 | 9.39 | 24.14 | 4.94 |
| P/FFO | 20.12 | 18.74 | 16.16 | 25.40 | 3.43 |
| P/AFFO | 24.10 | 24.31 | 19.60 | 31.32 | 4.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.85 | 4.78 | 2.95 | 6.28 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.27 | 1.31 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates UNH's fair value at $451.05 vs the current price of $293.27, implying +53.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $451.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $385.81 (P10) to $496.52 (P90), with a median of $441.07.
UNH's current P/E of 18.8x compares to the industry median of 22.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -15.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
52 analysts cover UNH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $385.38 (range: $327.00 — $444.00), implying +31.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (40), Hold (7), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UNH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11420.0% to approximately $628. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.