MODEL VERDICT
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $368.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $354.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $324.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $314.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $304.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $303.33 | -17.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $290.36 | -21.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $421.61 | +14.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $455.84 | +23.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $304.62 | -17.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $436.10 | +18.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $274.27 | -25.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $385.04 | +4.4% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $324 | $351 | $378 | $405 | $432 |
| Conservative (5%) | $333 | $361 | $389 | $417 | $445 |
| Base Case (-3.8%) | $305 | $331 | $356 | $382 | $407 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $301 | $326 | $352 | $377 | $402 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.98 | 24.95 | 20.52 | 32.62 | 4.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.49 | 18.92 | 15.93 | 21.75 | 2.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.46 | 14.75 | 14.00 | 18.64 | 1.70 |
| P/FCF | 20.05 | 19.23 | 16.75 | 24.14 | 2.79 |
| P/FFO | 20.42 | 18.74 | 17.15 | 25.40 | 3.10 |
| P/AFFO | 23.96 | 23.48 | 19.60 | 31.32 | 4.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.85 | 4.78 | 2.95 | 6.28 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.27 | 1.31 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates UNH's fair value at $385.04 vs the current price of $368.78, implying +4.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $385.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $337.64 (P10) to $436.91 (P90), with a median of $386.68.
UNH's current P/E of 27.9x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +21.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.0x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
52 analysts cover UNH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $385.43 (range: $327.00 — $444.00), implying +4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (42), Hold (6), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UNH trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UNH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7320.0% to approximately $639. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.