Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$293.27
→
Intrinsic$301.71
+3%
$184.25$301.71$535.44
Market implies 11% growth for 5 years
UNH appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $293, the market prices in 11% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (12%).
Range: Bear $184 → Bull $535. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $385 | $424 | $466 | $512 |
| 10% | $247 | $274 | $302 | $332 |
| 12% | $175 | $194 | $215 | $237 |
| 14% | $130 | $145 | $161 | $178 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($535) offers 83% upside at 14% growth, 8% discount
- 3% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (11%) ≤ historical CAGR (12%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($184) implies 37% downside at 9% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Net Income Projection
Year 1$15.89B
Year 2$17.76B
Year 3$19.84B
Year 4$22.16B
Year 5$24.76B
Terminal$392.37B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate11.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$14.23BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.