MODEL VERDICT
Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $93.30 | +692.7% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 3 REIT peers | $178.76 | +1418.8% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $32.10 | +172.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 3 industry peers | $2.55 | -78.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $152.49 | +1195.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $8.98 | -23.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $20.97 | +78.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.32 | +803.3% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $30 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $21 | $21 | $21 | $31 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $21 | $21 | $21 | $21 | $32 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 62.29 | 20.99 | 1.44 | 205.73 | 96.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.15 | 17.45 | 11.97 | 24.81 | 4.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.31 | 7.38 | 5.59 | 10.31 | 1.58 |
| P/FCF | 47.21 | 36.40 | 5.78 | 110.25 | 44.54 |
| P/FFO | 4.56 | 4.14 | 0.95 | 8.94 | 2.71 |
| P/AFFO | 44.59 | 23.95 | 1.61 | 128.88 | 57.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.62 | 1.19 | 0.84 | 3.37 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates UNIT's fair value at $106.32 vs the current price of $11.77, implying +803.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.75 (P10) to $127.46 (P90), with a median of $89.21.
UNIT's current P/E of 2.4x compares to the industry median of 31.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -92.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 62.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover UNIT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $11.00 — $11.00), implying -6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 56.8% is 56.2 percentage points above the 4-year average (0.6%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$3. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UNIT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (0.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7080.0% to approximately $3. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.