MODEL VERDICT
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $87.99 | +358.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $193.47 | +908.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $20.32 | +5.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $33.66 | +75.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $44.27 | +130.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $15.21 | -20.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $208.18 | +984.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $143.12 | +645.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $14.91 | -22.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $16.75 | -12.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $76.71 | +299.8% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $17 | $19 | $22 | $24 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $22 | $25 |
| Base Case (-19.6%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-27%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.66 | 13.62 | 9.30 | 107.38 | 38.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.29 | 12.51 | 8.08 | 20.29 | 4.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.58 | 10.04 | 6.53 | 11.75 | 1.75 |
| P/FCF | 11.80 | 9.73 | 3.27 | 33.68 | 10.22 |
| P/FFO | 9.69 | 9.09 | 6.87 | 15.68 | 2.88 |
| P/TBV | 9.31 | 4.25 | 4.15 | 19.53 | 8.85 |
| P/AFFO | 15.09 | 13.82 | 7.55 | 28.44 | 6.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.48 | 6.26 | 1.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.76 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates UPBD's fair value at $76.71 vs the current price of $19.19, implying +299.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $76.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.52 (P10) to $98.41 (P90), with a median of $82.09.
UPBD's current P/E of 15.4x compares to the industry median of 16.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -5.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.7x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
20 analysts cover UPBD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $39.67 (range: $33.00 — $45.00), implying +106.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UPBD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 27890.0% to approximately $73. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.