MODEL VERDICT
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $69.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $73.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $74.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $68.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $68.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $82.79 | +20.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $63.68 | -7.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $103.96 | +50.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $67.82 | -1.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $104.72 | +51.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $84.56 | +22.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $1177.54 | +1606.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $51.71 | -25.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $44.44 | -35.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $98.85 | +43.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $64.11 | -7.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $254.35 | +268.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (93%) | $97 | $117 | $136 | $156 | $175 |
| Conservative (151%) | $127 | $152 | $178 | $203 | $228 |
| Base Case (231.7%) | $168 | $201 | $235 | $269 | $302 |
| Bull Case (313%) | $209 | $251 | $292 | $334 | $376 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 346.20 | 17.67 | 7.62 | 2330.16 | 874.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 91.28 | 15.61 | 8.25 | 553.01 | 203.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.49 | 12.39 | 6.51 | 35.51 | 9.56 |
| P/FCF | 24.34 | 22.52 | 14.23 | 45.61 | 11.13 |
| P/FFO | 13.27 | 12.82 | 5.69 | 27.55 | 6.89 |
| P/TBV | 2.08 | 1.96 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 0.50 |
| P/AFFO | 29.37 | 24.18 | 15.39 | 53.74 | 15.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.08 | 1.96 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 0.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.52 | 1.28 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates URBN's fair value at $254.35 vs the current price of $69.01, implying +268.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $254.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.35 (P10) to $626.39 (P90), with a median of $226.16.
URBN's current P/E of 13.6x compares to the industry median of 20.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -33.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 346.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
58 analysts cover URBN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $89.57 (range: $80.00 — $102.00), implying +29.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (23), Hold (33), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that URBN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 212850.0% to approximately $1538. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.