MODEL VERDICT
Uxin Limited (UXIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $3.43 | CURRENT | -16.0% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $3.46 | Pending | -14.2% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $3.70 | Pending | -19.7% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $3.73 | Monitoring | -20.4% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.72 | Scaled in | +30.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 18 industry peers | $122.41 | +3468.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.89 | +2579.1% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates UXIN's fair value at $91.89 vs the current price of $3.43, implying +2579.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.17 (P10) to $155.20 (P90), with a median of $62.52.
UXIN's current P/E of -0.7x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -104.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover UXIN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.50 (range: $4.50 — $4.50), implying +31.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for UXIN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.