MODEL VERDICT
Vale S.A. (VALE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $31.06 | +92.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $31.06 | +92.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $14.48 | -10.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $43.23 | +167.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $34.31 | +112.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $43.82 | +170.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $16.18 | +0.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $17.29 | +6.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $14.25 | -11.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $39.20 | +142.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.62 | +46.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
| Conservative (5%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
| Base Case (-10.5%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.25 | 7.57 | 3.13 | 22.47 | 7.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.93 | 6.11 | 2.44 | 10.05 | 2.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.31 | 4.78 | 2.47 | 11.22 | 2.81 |
| P/FCF | 10.51 | 9.41 | 3.40 | 18.20 | 4.75 |
| P/FFO | 10.79 | 6.27 | 2.76 | 38.09 | 12.43 |
| P/TBV | 2.47 | 2.37 | 1.58 | 3.37 | 0.58 |
| P/AFFO | 11.64 | 13.81 | 3.44 | 22.22 | 7.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.82 | 1.74 | 1.10 | 2.47 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.61 | 1.66 | 0.99 | 2.17 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VALE's fair value at $23.62 vs the current price of $16.18, implying +46.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.41 (P10) to $27.25 (P90), with a median of $24.75.
VALE's current P/E of 27.9x compares to the industry median of 25.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +11.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.3x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
37 analysts cover VALE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.65 (range: $14.20 — $19.50), implying +2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (17), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VALE trades at the 5710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VALE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (35.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8420.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.