Vale S.A. (VALE)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Popular:
VALE Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $8.0B | $6.2B | $2.5B | $4.2B | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.83 | $1.37 | $0.58 | $0.96 | $1.04 | $1.00 | $1.12 |
| YoY Growth | — | -22.8% | -59.9% | +69.8% | +8.0% | -3.7% | +13.0% |
| Net Margin | 19.1% | 16.2% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 11.5% |
USD · VALE · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.2B | $39.4B | $39.0B | $40.3B | $42.8B |
| Net Income | $2.5B | $4.2B | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.58 | $0.96 | $1.04 | $1.00 | $1.12 |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B | $2.7B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.8B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying VALE stock.
Vale S.A.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $0.96. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 34/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Vale S.A.: Bear case $15, Base case $28, and Bull case $104. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Vale S.A.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -0.4%, reaching approximately $39.4B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 34/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Vale S.A.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 28.4% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($15) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 52.0% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.