MODEL VERDICT
Value Line, Inc. (VALU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $34.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $35.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $35.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $35.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $35.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $58.01 | +66.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $46.33 | +33.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 2 bank peers | $16.17 | -53.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $91.08 | +162.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $53.72 | +54.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.94 | +46.6% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $27 | $32 | $36 | $41 | $45 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $32 | $37 | $42 | $46 |
| Base Case (7.3%) | $28 | $33 | $38 | $42 | $47 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $29 | $34 | $39 | $43 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.17 | 21.27 | 17.47 | 26.14 | 3.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 48.23 | 50.52 | 35.74 | 58.52 | 8.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.70 | 45.67 | 34.72 | 49.95 | 6.25 |
| P/FCF | 23.71 | 23.91 | 18.09 | 27.88 | 3.75 |
| P/FFO | 20.82 | 20.91 | 16.48 | 24.37 | 2.94 |
| P/TBV | 5.61 | 5.89 | 3.63 | 6.72 | 0.97 |
| P/AFFO | 20.89 | 20.92 | 16.62 | 24.47 | 2.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.61 | 5.89 | 3.63 | 6.71 | 0.96 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.56 | 11.12 | 7.72 | 13.28 | 2.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates VALU's fair value at $50.94 vs the current price of $34.75, implying +46.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.59 (P10) to $60.54 (P90), with a median of $51.90.
VALU's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -40.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for VALU.
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VALU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (48.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1550.0% to approximately $40. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.