MODEL VERDICT
Vine Hill Capital Investment Corp. (VCIC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $10.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $10.64 | Below threshold | +3.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $4.27 | -59.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $10.21 | -4.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 14 bank peers | $10.57 | -0.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $3.14 | -70.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.47 | -29.9% | 100% | 62 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 115× | 126× | 137× (Current) | 148× | 159× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates VCIC's fair value at $7.47 vs the current price of $10.65, implying -29.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.82 (P10) to $9.15 (P90), with a median of $7.47.
VCIC's current P/E of 136.9x compares to the industry median of 54.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +149.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for VCIC.
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VCIC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.