MODEL VERDICT
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $71.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $70.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $64.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $64.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $66.08 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $61.87 | -13.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $49.89 | -30.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $62.93 | -12.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $21.06 | -70.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $26.40 | -63.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $73.98 | +3.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.27 | -22.9% | 100% | 71 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $49 | $63 | $77 | $91 | $105 |
| Conservative (7%) | $50 | $65 | $79 | $93 | $108 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $52 | $67 | $81 | $96 | $111 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $53 | $69 | $84 | $99 | $115 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.37 | 7.38 | 5.67 | 11.69 | 2.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.36 | 7.81 | 4.00 | 44.84 | 15.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.05 | 5.15 | 2.43 | 10.10 | 2.61 |
| P/FCF | 64.48 | 7.50 | 6.33 | 179.62 | 99.71 |
| P/FFO | 4.18 | 4.35 | 2.02 | 6.08 | 1.40 |
| P/TBV | 1.79 | 1.89 | 0.49 | 3.52 | 1.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.72 | 1.82 | 0.44 | 3.44 | 1.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.77 | 1.51 | 0.76 | 3.38 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates VIST's fair value at $55.27 vs the current price of $71.64, implying -22.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.85 (P10) to $70.39 (P90), with a median of $53.81.
VIST's current P/E of 10.6x compares to the industry median of 9.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +13.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.4x over 5 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
6 analysts cover VIST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $71.07 (range: $53.20 — $86.00), implying -0.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VIST trades at the 2440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VIST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (24.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3260.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.