MODEL VERDICT
Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $510.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $498.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $412.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $411.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $425.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $502.60 | -1.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $458.51 | -10.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $399.50 | -21.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $383.64 | -24.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $427.39 | -16.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $331.11 | -35.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $521.24 | +2.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $543.53 | +6.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $502.75 | -1.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $399.50 | -21.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $373.12 | -26.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $419.97 | -17.7% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $473 | $509 | $545 | $582 | $618 |
| Conservative (13%) | $495 | $533 | $571 | $609 | $647 |
| Base Case (20.6%) | $526 | $567 | $607 | $648 | $688 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $558 | $601 | $644 | $687 | $730 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.87 | 26.63 | 17.84 | 34.44 | 5.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.41 | 19.41 | 13.11 | 21.26 | 3.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.08 | 14.55 | 11.16 | 16.66 | 1.91 |
| P/FCF | 20.98 | 20.70 | 12.60 | 30.63 | 6.81 |
| P/FFO | 17.56 | 18.28 | 14.01 | 20.50 | 2.67 |
| P/TBV | 8.43 | 7.80 | 5.57 | 12.04 | 2.34 |
| P/AFFO | 27.59 | 28.01 | 17.06 | 33.98 | 5.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.75 | 3.81 | 2.74 | 4.88 | 0.73 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.47 | 1.52 | 1.18 | 1.95 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates VMI's fair value at $419.97 vs the current price of $510.36, implying -17.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $419.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $380.38 (P10) to $473.10 (P90), with a median of $426.15.
VMI's current P/E of 30.4x compares to the industry median of 23.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +27.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.9x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
14 analysts cover VMI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $475.50 (range: $450.00 — $501.00), implying -6.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VMI trades at the 6250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VMI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 450.0% to approximately $487. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.