MODEL VERDICT
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $30.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $28.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 10 REIT peers | $54.16 | +79.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $10.07 | -66.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $11.67 | -61.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $30.93 | +2.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $127.89 | +323.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $3.25 | -89.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $31.20 | +3.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $30.84 | +2.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.02 | +148.4% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $22 | $31 | $39 | $48 |
| Conservative (7%) | $18 | $22 | $31 | $40 | $49 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $23 | $32 | $42 | $51 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $24 | $33 | $43 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 252.97 | 78.98 | 4.10 | 1051.00 | 448.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.21 | 37.43 | 5.16 | 53.73 | 17.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.45 | 22.29 | 15.02 | 23.68 | 3.18 |
| P/FCF | 49.36 | 10.56 | 4.87 | 244.52 | 87.97 |
| P/FFO | 18.23 | 13.21 | 3.54 | 59.02 | 19.09 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 0.95 | 0.63 | 1.56 | 0.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.05 | 0.94 | 0.61 | 1.55 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.24 | 4.62 | 2.22 | 6.60 | 1.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates VNO's fair value at $75.02 vs the current price of $30.20, implying +148.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.24 (P10) to $165.15 (P90), with a median of $89.79.
VNO's current P/E of 7.2x compares to the industry median of 30.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -76.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 253.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover VNO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.50 (range: $34.00 — $42.00), implying +24.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (17), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 50.0% is 48.6 percentage points above the 5-year average (1.4%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$29. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VNO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (1.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 400.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.