MODEL VERDICT
Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. (VRTS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $136.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $143.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $139.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $143.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $137.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $306.96 | +125.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $348.98 | +156.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $118.39 | -12.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $251.82 | +85.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $301.96 | +122.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $268.86 | +97.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $260.97 | +91.9% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $70 | $104 | $139 | $174 | $209 |
| Conservative (5%) | $71 | $106 | $142 | $177 | $213 |
| Base Case (7.5%) | $73 | $109 | $145 | $182 | $218 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $74 | $112 | $149 | $186 | $223 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.07 | 12.35 | 8.96 | 21.66 | 4.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.34 | 11.04 | 9.37 | 14.50 | 1.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.44 | 16.20 | 10.88 | 20.69 | 3.30 |
| P/FCF | 7.64 | 7.81 | 3.60 | 11.51 | 3.96 |
| P/FFO | 8.91 | 8.34 | 6.22 | 14.57 | 2.69 |
| P/TBV | 9.88 | 9.38 | 6.51 | 17.40 | 3.97 |
| P/AFFO | 9.27 | 8.59 | 6.97 | 14.70 | 2.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.68 | 1.58 | 0.97 | 2.44 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.98 | 1.76 | 1.23 | 2.87 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates VRTS's fair value at $260.97 vs the current price of $136.00, implying +91.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $260.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $233.34 (P10) to $318.66 (P90), with a median of $275.55.
VRTS's current P/E of 8.1x compares to the industry median of 18.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -55.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover VRTS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $163.00 (range: $128.00 — $206.00), implying +19.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VRTS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8510.0% to approximately $252. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.