Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$86.16
→
Intrinsic$66.36
-23%
$36.55$66.36$122.97
Market implies 22% growth for 5 years
VTR trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $86, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (22%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $37 → Bull $123. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 13% | 15% | 17% | 19% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $86 | $96 | $106 | $117 |
| 10% | $53 | $59 | $66 | $74 |
| 12% | $34 | $39 | $44 | $50 |
| 14% | $22 | $26 | $30 | $35 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($123) offers 43% upside at 21% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($37) implies 58% downside at 14% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 22% growth expectations vs 17% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 23% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$1.92B
Year 2$2.25B
Year 3$2.64B
Year 4$3.11B
Year 5$3.65B
Terminal$53.73B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate17.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$1.63BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.