MODEL VERDICT
Vuzix Corporation (VUZI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $0.39 | -85.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $0.13 | -95.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.61 | -76.9% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.64 | 3.79 | 2.60 | 8.02 | 2.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.07 | 3.69 | 1.64 | 7.17 | 2.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 24.63 | 19.59 | 9.14 | 46.45 | 14.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates VUZI's fair value at $0.61 vs the current price of $2.63, implying -76.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.34 (P10) to $0.92 (P90), with a median of $0.63.
VUZI's current P/E of -2.4x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -109.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover VUZI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying +128.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VUZI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.