MODEL VERDICT
Weibo Corporation (WB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $10.50 | Pending | -3.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $20.14 | +102.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $24.63 | +148.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $21.55 | +117.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $29.76 | +199.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $16.58 | +67.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $28.70 | +189.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $18.21 | +83.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $19.88 | +100.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $29.53 | +197.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $28.78 | +189.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.80 | +129.6% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $6 | $8 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Conservative (5%) | $6 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $16 |
| Base Case (-11.9%) | $5 | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 |
| Bull Case (-16%) | $5 | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.91 | 21.26 | 7.66 | 53.11 | 15.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.52 | 16.96 | 4.41 | 22.95 | 7.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.90 | 9.42 | 4.50 | 21.05 | 6.78 |
| P/FCF | 13.12 | 12.30 | 4.13 | 29.58 | 8.66 |
| P/FFO | 18.17 | 20.02 | 6.33 | 29.79 | 9.28 |
| P/TBV | 3.04 | 2.10 | 0.77 | 8.01 | 2.62 |
| P/AFFO | 18.65 | 21.52 | 6.95 | 29.66 | 9.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.90 | 1.93 | 0.71 | 7.78 | 2.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.99 | 3.16 | 1.44 | 7.91 | 2.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WB's fair value at $22.80 vs the current price of $9.93, implying +129.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.63 (P10) to $32.30 (P90), with a median of $25.19.
WB's current P/E of 8.6x compares to the industry median of 18.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -53.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover WB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.18 (range: $7.50 — $56.00), implying +73.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15450.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.