Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$207.12
→
Intrinsic$137.60
-34%
$93.20$137.60$225.87
Market implies 30% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 19% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $207, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (30%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $93 → Bull $226. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 15% | 17% | 19% | 21% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $172 | $186 | $201 | $217 |
| 10% | $118 | $127 | $138 | $148 |
| 12% | $90 | $97 | $104 | $112 |
| 14% | $72 | $78 | $84 | $90 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($226) offers 9% upside at 23% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($93) implies 55% downside at 15% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 30% growth expectations vs 19% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 34% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$3.59B
Year 2$4.26B
Year 3$5.06B
Year 4$6.01B
Year 5$7.14B
Terminal$113.15B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate18.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$3.02BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.