MODEL VERDICT
WEX Inc. (WEX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $149.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $157.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $157.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $166.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $161.88 | Pending | +0.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $276.86 | +85.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $290.28 | +94.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $172.31 | +15.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $118.55 | -20.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $210.36 | +41.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $36.82 | -75.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $167.82 | +12.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $110.36 | -26.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $184.08 | +23.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $194.04 | +30.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $125.44 | -15.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $227.58 | +52.5% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $128 | $144 | $160 | $176 | $192 |
| Conservative (11%) | $133 | $149 | $166 | $182 | $199 |
| Base Case (16.1%) | $139 | $157 | $174 | $192 | $209 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $146 | $164 | $183 | $201 | $219 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.90 | 36.33 | 23.38 | 59.00 | 12.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.32 | 24.93 | 16.97 | 31.90 | 5.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.32 | 13.10 | 11.01 | 62.96 | 18.95 |
| P/FCF | 27.41 | 16.36 | 11.03 | 98.84 | 31.75 |
| P/FFO | 85.40 | 16.58 | 11.48 | 487.92 | 177.57 |
| P/AFFO | 25.32 | 21.41 | 14.97 | 39.30 | 9.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.16 | 4.38 | 3.04 | 4.86 | 0.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.96 | 3.44 | 2.75 | 5.72 | 1.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WEX's fair value at $227.58 vs the current price of $149.19, implying +52.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $227.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $172.68 (P10) to $310.07 (P90), with a median of $237.07.
WEX's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -13.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.9x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
32 analysts cover WEX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $169.80 (range: $146.00 — $210.00), implying +13.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WEX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 450.0% to approximately $156. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.