MODEL VERDICT
WEX Inc. (WEX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $151.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $150.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $173.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $171.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $159.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $394.98 | +161.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $309.60 | +104.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $232.18 | +53.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $128.50 | -15.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $246.69 | +63.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $42.31 | -72.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $94.27 | -37.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $219.47 | +45.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $232.45 | +53.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $138.52 | -8.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6360.73 | +4108.5% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $123 | $141 | $159 | $176 | $194 |
| Conservative (7%) | $126 | $144 | $162 | $180 | $198 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $130 | $149 | $168 | $186 | $205 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $135 | $154 | $173 | $192 | $211 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10663.59 | 33.97 | 17.59 | 63813.64 | 26038.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.82 | 23.29 | 14.01 | 31.90 | 6.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.69 | 12.26 | 9.24 | 62.96 | 19.28 |
| P/FCF | 27.06 | 16.36 | 11.03 | 98.84 | 31.87 |
| P/FFO | 84.24 | 15.73 | 8.42 | 487.92 | 178.13 |
| P/AFFO | 23.82 | 20.94 | 12.69 | 39.30 | 10.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.29 | 4.38 | 3.04 | 4.86 | 0.58 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.67 | 3.31 | 2.01 | 5.72 | 1.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WEX's fair value at $6360.73 vs the current price of $151.14, implying +4108.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6360.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $231.40 (P10) to $26186.88 (P90), with a median of $6204.46.
WEX's current P/E of 17.8x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -34.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10663.6x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover WEX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $177.67 (range: $158.00 — $220.00), implying +17.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WEX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2459270.0% to approximately $37321. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.