Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$149.19
→
Intrinsic$110.67
-26%
$45.85$110.67$233.80
Market implies 21% growth for 5 years
WEX trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $149, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (21%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $46 → Bull $234. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 12% | 14% | 16% | 18% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $153 | $174 | $197 | $221 |
| 10% | $81 | $95 | $111 | $127 |
| 12% | $41 | $51 | $63 | $75 |
| 14% | $15 | $24 | $33 | $42 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($234) offers 57% upside at 19% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($46) implies 69% downside at 13% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 21% growth expectations vs 16% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 26% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$388.01M
Year 2$450.62M
Year 3$523.33M
Year 4$607.77M
Year 5$705.84M
Terminal$10.39B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate16.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$334.10MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.