MODEL VERDICT
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $62.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $65.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $66.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $65.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $64.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $223.52 | +258.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $196.67 | +215.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $203.73 | +226.5% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.75 | 3.53 | 3.47 | 7.24 | 2.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.35 | 3.91 | 2.31 | 103.27 | 49.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.71 | 11.87 | 1.96 | 51.97 | 20.12 |
| P/FCF | 40.37 | 5.55 | 3.66 | 148.34 | 62.34 |
| P/FFO | 13.28 | 9.23 | 2.66 | 36.58 | 13.08 |
| P/TBV | 1.82 | 1.59 | 0.93 | 3.27 | 0.76 |
| P/AFFO | 33.81 | 5.47 | 3.26 | 121.06 | 58.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 1.01 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.63 | 1.14 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates WFG's fair value at $203.73 vs the current price of $62.39, implying +226.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $203.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $120.77 (P10) to $255.31 (P90), with a median of $187.21.
WFG's current P/E of -5.1x compares to the industry median of 36.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -113.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover WFG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.67 (range: $75.00 — $86.00), implying +29.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WFG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.